Kamala Harris Maintains Election Odds Lead Over Donald Trump as DNC Begins

Vice President Kamala Harris’ odds of defeating former President Donald Trump in November are holding strong as the Democratic National Convention (DNC) kicks off in Chicago on Monday.
According to the betting platform Polymarket, as of 5:15 p.m. ET on Monday, Harris has a 50 percent chance of beating her Republican rival on Election Day. Trump was given a 48 percent chance of winning his reelection bid.
Harris’ odds of beating Trump peaked last week when the vice president was given a 54 percent chance of winning in November as of August 15. On the same date, Trump was given a 44 percent chance on Polymarket, which allows users world-wide to buy shares that represent the outcome of an event. After an event occurs, the correct outcome can be redeemed for $1 a share.
Polling data has also shown momentum growing around Harris’ campaign since she entered the presidential race in late July after President Joe Biden stepped down from the race and gave her his endorsement.
In the latest poll by The New York Times and Siena College, the vice president was found to be leading Trump in two key battleground states—Arizona (50 to 45 percent) and North Carolina (49 to 47 percent). Meanwhile, the poll showed Trump leading Harris in other battleground states such as Georgia (50 to 46 percent) and Nevada (48 to 47 percent).
According to the Times’ national polling average, as of Monday, Harris is leading Trump by 2 percentage points (49 to 47 percent).
Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight’s average gives Harris a slightly larger lead, with the vice president winning 46.7 percent compared to Trump’s 43.8 percent across national polls as of Monday. In an ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos survey that was released on Sunday, Harris was given a 6 percent lead among likely voters (51 to 45 percent) based on the response of 2,336 U.S. adults. The poll’s margin of error was 2 percentage points.
Newsweek has reached out to Harris’ and Trump’s campaigns via email for comment.
Biden is expected to deliver the keynote speech on the opening night of the DNC. First lady Jill Biden is also scheduled to deliver some brief remarks and Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson will welcome supporters and politicians rallying behind Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz.
Thousands of demonstrators also gathered in Chicago in protest of the Biden administration’s policies toward the ongoing Israel-Hamas war. The Associated Press reported on Monday afternoon that over 200 organizations gathered in alliance in response to the DNC. Demonstrators plan to march toward the site of the convention.
The protests led to heighten security measures around the DNC, including law enforcement and the U.S. Secret Service forming a “wall” around the convention. Only “credentialed or ticketed individuals” will be permitted to enter into the perimeter, which was set up using a makeshift wall of metal fencing and vehicles.